from Paul Graham | by Paul Graham

Worth reading for anyone interested in big historic trends. Best case we end up with China plus its raw materials suppliers vs the rest of the world. In which case I'd definitely bet on the rest of the world. t.co/emoTcW22aq

Prediction: The development of new technology will play a pivotal role. Xi may feel China now has the industrial capability to go it alone (or at least, may rationalize his personal ambition by telling himself that), but can new ideas flourish in an authoritarian country?

Plus it seems to me that the timing of this move was dictated more by the shape of Xi's career than by global trends. Which means that even if it were a winning move for China to disengage, it's extremely unlikely that this would be the optimal time at which to do it.