from Patrick McKenzie | by Patrick McKenzie

This is likely to be a bit of a bumpy week for the financial system, and if you need to, I would reserve some bandwidth for dealing with those developments as they come.

I seem to have a gift for understatement so to make this explicit: I'd put ~20% chance that we are in the beginning stages of a banking crisis. Banking crises are not the end of the world, but they are substantially worse than the failures of an individual bank.

I had this at 2% on Thursday, U.S. time, if that helps calibrate, and rounds-to-zero on Tuesday.

And so this is a week where a lot of the things that we ordinarily simply depend on working without coming to our conscious attention will definitely come to our conscious attention and may or may not have the typical level of uptime we expect from them.

It currently seems like at least some people professionally involved with all of this appreciate the degree of risk, which means that there is likely to be some strong medicine applied. Strong medicine is unpleasant (it's not called "food"), even when better than alternative.