from Balaji | by Balaji

There was indeed a broken promise. And we can prove it. Every quarter, the Fed publishes rate forecasts. What did they forecast back in Dec 2020? Well, their median estimate for 2023's rate was 0.1%. But today, it's actually 4.75%. Off by >47X!! So any bank who bought long-term…

This isn't a one off. Here's a gif of the last nine Fed "dot plots". See how they start at the bottom...then soar? Remember, they control these numbers... ...yet their forecasts were wildly misleading! And misdirected many billions of dollars. This is why t.co/YrAk1aHaCU… t.co/3usqokhOIA

Now, I'm sure someone will say "oh, it's just a forecast, it has uncertainty, people deserved to get rekt if they didn't guess right." However: THEY SET THE RATES TOO The people forecasting these numbers are also the ones *setting* these numbers. It's t.co/Ncf5hEISX7… t.co/tcSkkOr9oc

In summary: Fed lied, banks died. They said rates would stay low. The government sold bonds on that premise. Then they suddenly hiked rates. Crushing existing bondholders. This is how the Fed caused the unrealized losses that led to SVB's insolvency. And maybe that of other… t.co/BlmZxrD2xV t.co/LZtWpPVnOO

Depositors must take responsibility for understanding the Federal Reserve Bank... ...yet the Fed is understood to take no responsibility for bankrupting depositors?