from Balaji | by Balaji

The concept of a low-probability-but-extreme-downside scenario is not some new thing. Dick Cheney used it to justify invading Iraq. If there was even a 1% chance of nuclear terrorism...well, we need to treat it as a certainty. t.co/KSqL32YR0d

Thing is...right after 9/11 that seemed plausible! And even in hindsight, you wanted *some* reaction. But you wanted a surgical reaction. A scalpel, not a sledgehammer. So too for climate, COVID, and other apocalypses. And AI risk. The cure can be worse than the disease.

Dick Cheney was an x-risk pioneer, along with Zhengli Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He justified invading Iraq based on the 1% risk of nuclear terrorism. She justified gain-of-function research to prove the risk from deadly coronaviruses was real. Do we have a third? t.co/i7AVgBkkbq