aoc | Crypto Trader

@_theartofcrypto

about 3 years ago

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I always find it amusing to watch analysts trying to predict "the next big crash" But if we could do this accurately crashes wouldn't even happen in the first place.

In retrospect, it is always easy to identify patterns, causes, and explanations in past events. Still, they are mostly useless for predicting the future. Learning from history does not come naturally to humans.

This is due to hindsight bias: in retrospect, earlier events always seem more predictable than they really were at the time. You can try to time the market or you can make sure you are hedged and ready for whatever happens in the market. It's your choice, choose well.

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