from Alex Barrow 🪶 | by Alex Barrow 🪶

The SPX has only two trading days left in the month to see if it can turn its monthly bar around and close in the green. As of now its not looking so good. Also, the chart is coiling in a tight 10-month range. Compression regimes lead to expansionary ones (aka. Big trends)... /1 t.co/ZldZRzF0UV

2/ We’re fairly neutral in our short-to-intermediate term outlook. So we’ll wait for the market tip its hand on this one. Bonds will be the tell. If they can’t hold a line, then neither will stocks.

3/ It's not all bad though… key internal leads continue to hold up well. Typically we’d see cyclicals, semis, corporate debt, etc… underperform on a relative basis if we are in fact about to start another leg lower. And that’s just not happening, yet. t.co/y8u3ca7AB0

4/ Bridgewater continues to pound the higher for longer rates table (Dalio is obviously a big fan of MO’s work). Their recent report with the riveting title “The Tightening Cycle Is Approaching Stage 3: Guideposts We’re Watching" states the following: t.co/1QhW5QstMs

5/ Here is what BW thinks needs to happen in order to obtain a more stable equilibrium. And FWIW, we agree with them: t.co/HVnQoQDJKG

6/ We dig deeper into BW's report, analyze cyclical bear markets and recessions, and make a case for crude oil in the latest Dirty Dozen chart pack: t.co/mqPKNXwvhO