from Alex Barrow 🪶 | by Alex Barrow 🪶

My base case is we’re in a primary bear market and we should enter a recession in the latter half of this year, though odds say we should see a continued bullish counter-trend move over the coming weeks... 1/

2/ With that said, looking at charts like those below makes me uneasy about my bearish bent. t.co/oTPU9XwHKZ

3/ In support of our short-term bullish view, here’s a chart of the Russell 3k and the percentage of stocks above their 10 and 50-day moving averages. Red dots mark instances where both the 10 and 50-day indicators dip below the 20% level, indicating deeply oversold breadth. t.co/jzCmHlbhLw

4/ We should see these charts roll over before the broader market does. But right now they continue to either rip higher (in the case of semis vs SPX) or at the very least, confirm the bullish advance in the broader market. Not bearish... t.co/ezeJ9q6rGh

5/ Our Trend Fragility indicator (a composite measure of positioning and sentiment) dropped last week to its 14th percentile. A move below 10% has a strong track record of marking durable bottoms. And these charts from GS show CTA positioning in stocks is near its all-time lows. t.co/dT3wN23tkA

6/ Here’s a breakdown of labor market gains/losses by industry. This measure has been steadily deteriorating over the last couple of months but remains far from levels indicating a recession is nigh. t.co/tGO8LX166s

7/ We dig deeper into economic data while discussing oil, bonds, and crypto in our latest Dirty Dozen chart pack: t.co/nbqoeSfFSG