SET Allocations / Enrollments Analysis

🧵 Yesterday the Minister got her SET Allocation numbers mixed up so I thought I'd get the figures for you: twitter.com/simonmlewis/status/1758410326360383699

2/ The Department spin is worded in such a way as to make it looks like only 10% of schools that lost hours lost more than 5 hours so therefore 90% of schools should be happy. They also said 67% either gained or stayed the same. Let's look at the figures.

3/ All the data comes from the Department of Educations own statistics. Data excludes schools that didn't exist in 2022 or schools that closed by 2024. OK - let's go!

4/ Overall, the percentage increase in SET Allocations from 2022 to 2024 is *0.63%* Based on all schools, enrollments remain pretty similar, down from 546,787 to 546,106, roughly 0.1%. Both of these stats put to bed any spin that there's big increases.

5/ The first question - how many schools actually gained, stayed the same and lost hours. Here's the real data. I won't argue over a couple of percentage points. [img:nFwsXMioj]

6/ Let's start with the positives and look at the gainers. Here is a graph of how many schools gained how many hours. 40% gained fewer than 5 hours. [img:ZAhttMQMK]

7/ A full time post is the equivalent of 25 hours. The Minister says that over 1,000 new teaching posts are gained as a result of the new allocations. Only 3% of schools gained more than 25 hours, roughly 90 full time jobs.

8/ All the other hours have to be clustered to come up to make up posts. Adding all schools that gained hours, I calculated (if they all clustered) made up 327 jobs. I also calculated jobs lost due to decreased hours and this was 264 jobs, so we have 63 extra full time jobs.

9/ Of the 1,157 schools that increased their SET allocations, more than half of them had more than a 2% increase in their enrollment. Naturally they should have an increase?

10/ Let's move to the schools that lost hours. Here's a graph of those losses. While the Minister is right that most schools lost fewer than 5 hours, that represents less than half of schools that lost hours. 54% of schools that lost hours lost more than 5 hours per week. [img:U8CfMO4I0]

11/ Interestingly of the schools that lost hours, 1 in 5 of them dropped their enrollments by at least 1 full mainstream class so you'd expect a loss in hours there! Schools that lost SET hours, 66.87% also experienced a drop in enrollments by more than 2%.

12/ A graph showing how schools fared whether their enrollments increased, decreased or stayed the same. [img:NtMyxJnyd]

13/ Here's another way of looking at the same data. [img:bNC7qEalF]

14/ If there's any other data you'd like to see, based on enrollments/allocations, reply to this and I'll do my best. If it's been of use to you, please consider subscribing to my newsletter for fortnightly education news and views https:/anseo.net/subscribe

15/ Please share this data with anyone you think will bring it to places I can't reach! I hope it's of use. twitter.com/simonmlewis/status/1758468026880385383