I’m genuinely confused by this kerfuffle about FTX and Alameda, where a) I model... | by Patrick McKenzie

Patrick McKenzie


about 1 month ago

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I’m genuinely confused by this kerfuffle about FTX and Alameda, where a) I model them as the least likely operation in crypto to have blown up due to incompetence and b) they have adopted the reasoned and measured comms strategy used by banks that are factually in crisis. t.co/3h16df242A

If Bank of America ever tweets that it has all depositors’ money and that wire transfers are happening as normal, every professional in finance would read that exactly the same way: global financial calamity.

“Then how do you get out word that wires are going out?” You send your tweets into FedWire and your PR team carefully laughs and says nothing quotable if a particularly stupid reporter ever asks you about outgoing wires.

(Note that banks actually have run risk and well-operated exchanges shouldn’t, which compounds my level of confusion.)

*taps standard disclaimer statement* As always, opinions in this space are my own, and my observations on the operations of the financial system are informed by general knowledge rather than by using other-than-public information.

If you do not share my occasional interest here, the backstory is that the head of a crypto exchange which uses a Bond villain compliance strategy is annoyed at perceived attempts to undermine the industry via regulating it, and has apparently started a not-so-whisper campaign.

I do not know why a whisper campaign by a Bond villain necessitates an on-the-record denial of insolvency and I remain confused. t.co/5OqSNPpczO

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