Anthony Pompliano 🌪

It is nearly impossible for any individual or business to plan for the next 12 months, let alone the next few years.

No one knows what the monetary policy of the global reserve currency will be. 

The uncertainty will lead to bad decisions that once looked like good decisions.

The fact that we can't even predict what is going to happen in the next 90 days is absurd. 

How do we expect employers to plan? How about pension funds? Or homeowners?

You need predictability in order to create stability.

It is easy to dunk on financial institutions that bought long duration assets, but the truth is that it was a good decision when they did it. 

Is the expectation for financial institutions to day trade with retail customer deposits? Is that really what we want banks to do?

The situation is incredibly complex. Most people, including members of the Fed, are doing the best they can. 

I truly believe they have the best intentions. Economics is hard and there may not be a single "right" answer.

Easy for everyone, including myself, to critique others.

Entrepreneur, investor, and lifelong learner. I write a daily letter to 235,000+ investors at https://t.co/E6GoKjvdJH

Pomp 🌪

When market turmoil happens, I try to make a list of things I learn so I can remember them later.

Sometimes the list is full of new things and sometimes they are just reminders.

Here is what I have so far from the last few days 👇🏼

Lesson #1: Act with urgency.

Many people heard rumors of SVB in trouble, but were slow to act.

When the risk-reward incentivizes action, you must act with urgency.

Lesson #2: Best investors use logic over loyalty.

Many investors told portfolio companies to keep money in SVB out of “loyalty” to the bank.

Tier-1 investors almost unanimously told founders to move their money immediately.

Logic, not loyalty.

Lesson #3: Open 2 accounts for everything.

This previously was annoying & seemed like overkill. Now it feels like part of SOPs.

Diversification breeds resilience.

Lesson #4: Black swans are real.

No one predicted the second largest bank failure in US history hurting ~ 50% of US startups this year.

You can’t predict the black swans, but knowing they exist will let you identify them faster when they happen.

Lesson #5: Most advice on Twitter is ridiculously bad in heat of the moment.

So many people were flexing by saying they were keeping their money on SVB or telling others to do the same.

If the advice is good in times of chaos, it is probably shared privately - not publicly.

Lesson #6: Business & finance is a magnifier on human psychology.

A bank run is the product of memetic activity. Humans can’t help themselves.

Be well read on human psychology and you’ll have an advantage over others.

Lesson #8: Who you take advice from is sometimes more important than what the advice is.

Many VCs are ill-equipped to identity & understand a bank run. Traditional finance & crypto investors much better suited & more experienced.

Seek advice from right people for a situation.

Lesson #9: Every company is made up of people with families & dreams.

Even in moments of crisis, you can act quickly with empathy and care.

You don’t have to be an asshole. 

Stressful times don’t get better by yelling or being rude.

Lesson #10: Control your emotions.

Your brain will naturally go into fight or flight during a chaotic event.

Calm down. Take a deep breath. Think critically. Don’t be emotional.

Way easier said than done, but emotional control is essential for navigating uncertainty.

There will be others that I’ll add in the coming days and weeks but this is what I have so far. 

What lessons have you taken away? What did I miss?

Vivek Ramaswamy

Presidential candidate @VivekGRamaswamy joined me this weekend to discuss why we need citizens who are proud to be American. 

This was an insightful conversation that is very different from what you normally hear.

Enjoy! 

https://t.co/RewTg03Q9t

This is the first conversation that we are releasing publicly from @LYCEUMmiami, the conference I hosted in Miami with people from various industries.

If you would prefer to listen on audio, you can do that here on Spotify: https://t.co/L7E8COwQWr

JP Morgan reports they have more employees in Texas than in the state of New York. 

Not exactly what you expect from a large bank.

It is hard to explain how negative many of the policy decisions have been in states like NY and CA.

People are voting with their feet and dollars.

It is fascinating to think what the impact would be for the finance and tech hubs of CA/NY to shift to Texas and Florida. 

Previously thought impossible, but now the data suggests a shift is occurring (no guarantee though).

A lot of economic impact up for grabs...

Wealthy private investors have been buying up commercial real estate at an accelerated rate over the last two years. https://t.co/1nBmHu7Nt4

Southwest is the highest rated airline and Frontier is the lowest rated. https://t.co/XbGP4fJZAm

Student loan debt has more than doubled since 2010 to over $1.8 trillion https://t.co/lkRPh2pERY

Tomorrow morning I am publishing my notes from the book I read this past week. 

These book notes have become quite popular so I will continue to do them each Monday.

Subscribe here to read: https://t.co/29uk453LoP

If interested, last Monday I published my notes on A Curious Mind: The Secret To A Bigger Life.

You can read them here. 

https://t.co/TLmmomgG9y

Two weeks ago I published my notes on Robert Greene's Mastery. 

You can read them here.

https://t.co/GMfNUy4mzC

Entrepreneur, investor, and lifelong learner.

This is how you know your wife thinks you are dumb when going to the grocery store https://t.co/vy2Xyqp6ny

Ok, I’m legit confused. Which one do we think it is? https://t.co/ihMCSdfWwg

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The highest probability path to becoming a millionaire is not starting your own company, but rather joining a fast growing one that is already working.

The highest probability path to becoming a billionaire is to start your own company. 

But the odds are still incredibly low.

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